Where does Justin Forsett fit in the Ravens offense?

Justin Forsett, the seventh year running back from California, was brought in as a veteran free agent in order to soften the transition from the Cameron/Caldwell offense to Gary Kubiak's zone blocking/West Coast attack.  We can assume he will be called upon to spell Bernard Pierce in the first two regular season games due to Ray Rice's 2-game suspension.  Can he hold up?  If so, what can he provide?

I watched the film of all of Forsett's carries and receptions that I have access to (2012-2013; 69 carries, 18 receptions) to get an idea of how he will be used during the coming season.

Rushing Style:

Forsett's experience in the zone rushing attack allowed him to thrive in Houston, and I believe he'll be an important piece for Kubiak's new offense in 2014.  Forsett's smallish frame (5'8", 198lbs) was never suited for a downhill power style, but his understanding of running back reads within the zone blocking system coupled with above-average lateral agility makes him a commodity for the Ravens rushing attack.

Forsett is not a particularly great freelancer, and he rarely makes defenders miss when out in open space. Thus, he will be most successful when he adheres to the strict rules of the zone-based running game.  Forsett has shown consistently intuitive timing of his cuts that forces scraping linebackers directly into the path of his blockers.  This mastery of linebacker manipulation will prove very useful in 2014.

The Texans are using their 21 personnel package (2 backs, 1 tight end) and will run outside zone to the strong (left) side.  Forsett's first read is the 6-tech defensive end (orange) whose leverage will determine Forsett's path.  Importantly, LG Wade Smith and C Chris Myers will double team Forsett's second read (3-tech DT; blue) before Myers scoops to the second level to block MLB Brian Urlacher.

LG Smith and C Myers have knocked the 3-tech defensive tackle (blue) completely off balance toward the play-side (termed 'domination block') and it opens a path for Forsett to follow as he receives the hand-off.  Forsett can take the path given to him but C Chris Myers has not yet reached Urlacher.  If Forsett cuts too soon (dotted line), Urlacher will be sitting in the hole.

As he's been taught, Forsett begins his up-field cut once he reaches the heels (yellow circle) of his offensive lineman. This forced Urlacher to scrape too far to the play-side allowing C Myers to scoop up to block him.  Cutting too early (an enticing option) would have led to a minimal gain and another tackle next to Urlacher's name. Instead, Forsett's adherence to the zone blocking rules sprung him for a ~30 yard gain.

But just because Forsett is well-versed in the zone scheme doesn't necessarily make him a bell-cow back.  Realistically, Forsett is a small back without a ton of requisite speed.  His selection of the correct creases doesn't translate into explosion through the hole as often as one would like. In general, Forsett will make the offensive line look good by gaining what is blocked and periodically breaking an arm tackle in the hole.

If Forsett had slightly better lateral cut ability and complementary speed, he could couple these traits with his zone scheme expertise to coalesce into a "complete" rushing threat.

In the Pass Game

Assuming Gary Kubiak can trust Forsett to block in the pass game, Forsett will likely take a considerable portion of the third down snaps. As such, he will need to be a productive receiving threat who can be more than a checkdown option in the shallow middle of the field.

Fortunately, Forsett has experience in the passing game throughout his career. He has been targeted 153 times (120 receptions) and has dropped a low 4.6% of his targets since 2009. Thus, Forsett can excel when the Ravens are facing third and long.

The history that Forsett has with Kubiak doesn't only help him in the rushing game, as he fits nicely as a West Coast passing back as well.

The following play takes the West Coast staple "Flanker Drive" and combines it with the "Texas" route to create a Follow element. From the West Coast playbook:

 The variant of this play in Jacksonville:

Justin Forsett is aligned in a "chowed" alignment (outside leg of the tackle) with an inside linebacker (orange line) covering him out of the backfield.  

With the split end running the shallow cross (yellow) and Forsett breaking toward the flat (red) after the snap, the covering linebacker is all alone trying to recover when Forsett breaks inside on the Texas route.

Forsett creates so much space in middle of the field that he can catch the ball in stride and pick up the third and seven.

This play call will appear in Ravens offense this season and if it occurs prior to Rice's reinstatement, Forsett is the best fit given his knowledge of angles and the ability to get north-and-south in a hurry.

The second, and possibly more important, aspect of the passing game where Forsett can shine is his capacity to create favorable match-ups away from the core of the formation:

The 2012 Texans are using their 12 personnel (1 back, 2 tight ends) on third down.  The Packers are showing blitz off the offense's right side, so instead of adding Forsett to the protection scheme, they motion him to the perimeter.  As a response, Green Bay reveals their man coverage intentions by mirroring Forsett with LB A.J. Hawk.  The match-up on the outside now favors the offense.  The call is "Tunnel Screen."

Kubiak's offense slips two linemen into the flat to open up a cut-back lane for Forsett after he catches the screen pass.  A huge gain ensues due to the match-up created by alignment, something the Ravens struggled to do under Cameron/Caldwell.

Lofty expectations breed disappointment more often than not, so Ravens fans who are expecting Forsett to be the Ray Rice of old will be let down. But fans expecting a versatile back who can spell Bernard Pierce and be effective in the passing game will be satisfied, in my opinion.