Can the Ravens Defense Stop the Patriots?

The Ravens secondary has been the weak part of the team since the beginning of the season.  The pass rush (and by extension, the run defense) has masked some of the back end's deficiencies... but defending the Patriots' fourth ranked offense (by DVOA) will pose a sizable challenge.  New England certainly has a number of offensive weapons, but can the Ravens offer enough resistance to give their offense a chance to win?  I went back to the tape to find some answers.

Stopping the Patriots Ground Game

The Patriots come into Saturday's game ranking 14th in rushing DVOA whereas the Ravens are statistically the 5th most efficient defense in stopping the run. But even though the Ravens have a statistical edge, the NFL is about all about match-ups.

The New England offensive line has seen better days.  With the off-season departure of Logan Mankins and the regression of LT Nate Solder, this O-line is not the group it once was.  This is the main reason (aside from having Tom Brady) that the run game has been less of a priority this season.

The Ravens boast one of the best front-sevens in the league right now, including a Top-3 inside linebacker tandem with Mosley and Daryl Smith.  Baltimore's defensive line eats up space and clogs running gaps, which allows Mosley and Smith to scrape and work through the "trash" to take down ball-carriers.  One of the stand-outs of the 2014 defensive line has been nose tackle Brandon Williams.  He has been fantastic all season and most recently dominated the Steelers' Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey in the run game, putting him on "skates" multiple times before making a tackle.

The Patriots will use rookie 4th-round center Bryan Stork across from Williams, which is a match-up the Ravens will likely exploit throughout the game.  Being the erudite schemer he is, Belichick will look to bolster his offensive line with personnel and "trap" concepts:

Instead of asking C Bryan Stork to block the nose-tackle Damon Harrison one-on-one, the Patriots use the "wham" concept to trap the nose-tackle and allow the center to work to the second-level at the snap.  The trap blocker is Gronkowski who is only a good blocker for a tight-end and has no business taking on interior lineman.  In the second frame, Harrison has stood up Gronkowski, leaving a diminished lane for HB Jonas Gray to find.  The less-than-elite nose tackle Harrison sheds Gronkowski with ease and makes the tackle for minimal gain.

GIF of the above play

Ultimately, the Patriots rush attack is based on a mixture of power and zone concepts that don't often produce big running lanes.  It appears that the Patriots tend to use their running game as a means of gaining 2-3 yards-per-carry on first-down to keep Brady from taking deeper shots on later downs.  That said, the Patriots will try to use personnel to their advantage and roll out seven offensive lineman to provide the push they were not getting from their standard sets:

This package is technically "11" personnel but it includes two additional tackles to the right of the formation, including the movement of starting left-tackle Nate Solder to a "wing" position and the insertion of back-up tackle Marcus Cannon in the typical left-tackle spot.

Though this package is in their repertoire, I don't expect the Patriots to use this approach too often given the size and athleticism of the Ravens defensive front.  In addition to the known run-stoppers on the Ravens defense (e.g. Suggs, Williams, Smith, Mosley), Pernell McPhee and Elvis Dumervil have both been highly effective at setting the edge as outside linebackers versus tight-ends and tackles as well as taking on kick-out blocks from guards and full-backs.  The Ravens front has been indomitable in recent weeks.

Lastly, New England's back-field includes average talent with Vereen, Blount, and Gray, who can all find holes in front of them but are not agile enough to consistently avoid penetrators and alter their path when the scheme breaks down.

Can the Ravens Secondary Pull it Off Again?

The Ravens pass defense had a phenomenal showing in the Wild Card round versus the Steelers.  The game-plan from Dean Pees was masterful and the secondary's short-comings were minimized by a healthy pass rush from the established rushers Suggs, Dumervil, and McPhee.  Additionally, the Ravens were able to get a productive rush from Williams and Upshaw, two bulky run-stoppers.

The strategy versus the Steelers in the back-end was to mix coverages on early downs (it helped that they didn't need to dedicate a safety to the box versus the run) and use match-up zones behind blitz schemes to take away hot-routes.  If the Ravens have comparable success against the Patriots run game, we can expect the match-up zone strategy to be the prevailing tactic due to the advantages it offers.



















This was an early third-down during Saturday's playoff game with the first down marker at the 10 yard-line.  The Ravens (as I see it) are running a form of Cover-2 similar to "2-Buster" with standard Cover-2 zones on at the top of the screen and man/matching principles on the bottom of the screen.  With the Steelers using three-wide receivers and one tight-end (similar can what we can expect from the Patriots), linebacker Daryl Smith and slot corner Anthony Levine (Match #2) need to diagnose the releases of Heath Miller and Antonio Brown and match up accordingly.

After the snap, Roethlisberger is attempting to work a two-man "Sucker" passing concept where Miller (#2) works the middle of the field on the post (behind Daryl Smith) and Antonio Brown (#3) works a short curl/option route.  The goal of Brown's route is to "suck" Smith forward and allow Miller's post to break open in the middle of the field.  Daryl Smith knows it's a third-and-long situation and that his priority should be to "cushion" any in-breaking routes deeper than him.  If Brown catches the ball underneath, he will need to gain several yards-after-the-catch to avoid putting the Steelers in fourth-down.

The endzone angle of the same play shows Daryl Smith's savvy zone presence where he cushions Miller's post rather than driving to Brown's (#84) curl route.  Additionally, once Roethlisberger's first read (Miller) is taken away, he has to bring the ball down due to outside pressure from Dumervil.

GIF of the above play

The Patriots will run similar concepts versus the Ravens including using Gronkowski on in-breaking routes to make contested catches over the middle.  With the Ravens new-found success with multiple coverage concepts, I expect them to attempt to take away Tom Brady's first read and force him to hesitate by way of analysis, leaving him susceptible to the pass rush.  Although the Ravens secondary will not always have the best match-ups on the Patriots' receiving threats, scheme can mask these deficiencies long enough to where the pass rush can become a factor.

Despite success with match-up zones against the Steelers, the Patriots do a better job at using spacing to dictate one-on-one coverages in the passing game.  Zone cannot (and will not) be used exclusively by the Ravens defense.  We can expect to see Webb/Melvin play sides against (a recently concussed) Edelman or Brandon LaFell while Will Hill can match Gronkowski on the edge like he did versus Graham and the Saints.

The concern about the Ravens in man-coverage is Brady's propensity to use man-beating route combinations, particularly in the red zone.  The Ravens showed a tendency to align their defensive backs at the same level which allows for pick/rub concepts to work more effectively.

Ravens defensive backs aligned at the same level three times on Saturday vs. the Steelers

Tom Brady has had success versus the Ravens using man-beating concepts multiple times during their recent rivalry:

This was the most recent example, but not the only one.  This is a simple Flat-7 combination with the #1 receiver running a legal "pick".  Notice that both the flat- and 7-route are both open.

After watching the tape, the perceived mismatch between the Ravens defense and Patriots offense is not the chasm that some make it to be.  It will be necessary for Dean Pees to package protection-beating rush schemes with the disguised "exchange" coverage concepts that he implemented so well in Pittsburgh.  If the Ravens can bait Tom Brady into a few errant throws and capitalize on fumble-luck, the Ravens can get the best of the Patriots offense.


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