Pointless Exercises

In 2006, when the Ravens acquired the late Steve McNair, I boldly proclaimed that the team would go 13-3 with "Air" McNair, winning the division in the process. Given that the team was a worse-than-it-sounds 6-10 the year before, I'd say it was my finest prophetic moment.

In the spirit of such pointless exercises, here are my game-by-game predictions for this year's Ravens squad:

Week 1: Ravens at Broncos - LOSS
Week 2: Ravens at Raiders - WIN
Week 3: Ravens vs. Bengals - WIN
Week 4: Ravens at Steelers - LOSS
Week 5: Ravens vs. Browns - WIN
Week 6: Ravens at 49ers - WIN
Week 7: Ravens at Cardinals - LOSS
Week 8: Ravens vs. Chargers - WIN
Week 9: BYE
Week 10: Ravens vs. Jaguars - WIN
Week 11: Ravens vs. Rams - LOSS
Week 12: Ravens at Browns - WIN
Week 13: Ravens at Dolphins - LOSS
Week 14: Ravens vs. Seahawks - LOSS
Week 15: Ravens vs. Chiefs - WIN
Week 16: Ravens vs. Steelers - LOSS
Week 17: Ravens at Bengals - WIN

Final record: 9-7

Do I think the Ravens will make the playoffs with such a record? Perhaps. If my prediction comes true and Pittsburgh sweeps Baltimore, I believe it will be tough. On the bright side, this forecast will almost certainly be inaccurate by season's end.

Can the Ravens Defense Stop the Patriots?

The Ravens secondary has been the weak part of the team since the beginning of the season.  The pass rush (and by extension, the run defense) has masked some of the back end's deficiencies... but defending the Patriots' fourth ranked offense (by DVOA) will pose a sizable challenge.  New England certainly has a number of offensive weapons, but can the Ravens offer enough resistance to give their offense a chance to win?  I went back to the tape to find some answers.

The Ravens Run Game is Heating Back Up

The Ravens under Gary Kubiak are built on running the ball.  Successful running allows for less risky "shot" plays in the pass game due to down/distance and dictates coverage concepts on the back end.  The run game hadn't been as effective going into Sunday's game versus the Browns as they managed only 93 yards and 33 yards against the Jaguars and Texans, respectively.  On Sunday, to the Ravens credit, they eschewed the former coordinator's tendency to stray from the run game and continued to pound the ball even after only minimal success.  As can be seen in the chart below that marks the yards on each attempt this past Sunday chronologically, the big gains came toward the end of the game:

How the Ravens Protection Let Them Down

The Ravens lost in frustrating fashion to the Texans 25-13 and with it, lost control of their destiny fate.  It was clear from early on that the Texans defense was going to be aggressive and look to bring interior pressure in the pass game.  The Ravens offensive line played admirably in one-on-one protection situations but the protection scheme let them down. 

Situation: 2Q 9:57, First and 10 on the Ravens' 8 yardline

With the Ravens backed up to their own 8 yardline, the offense came out on first down throwing.  They use their 12 personnel package to attack the Texans Quarters coverage look.  In order to account for seven potential rushers, the Ravens use "half slide" protection where the 5 OL + 1 RB are responsible for 6 rushers.  If seven rushers come, the seventh is on Flacco.  This is how it played out:

Both TEs (Gillmore and Daniels) are running short stick patterns to the middle of the field.  The outside linebackers follow them in "match" coverage while the two interior linebackers "cross blitz" (also referred to as "Fire X").  This causes havoc for the interior of the protection because they've opened up a lane for the blitzers to penetrate.  The protection scheme was built to withstand six rushers, but due to the Texans superior game-plan, they only needed to bring five to hurry Flacco into an errant throw.

This is football, though.  You get out-schemed on one play, you adjust, and move on.

However, the very next play:

Situation: 2Q 9:53, Second and 10 on the Ravens' 8 yardline

The Ravens show the same protection scheme against the same Texans front.

This time, the first rusher of the stunting linebackers (often know as the penetrator) times the snap and gets to Flacco before Forsett can step up.  The result is intentional grounding and almost lead to a safety.

In a vacuum I would rarely criticize this individual series of plays.  However, the Ravens have experience against heavy A-gap pressure teams.  The Steelers, Bengals, and (to a lesser extent) the Browns all show interior pressure versus the Ravens twice a year. 

Additionally, it wasn't until the 10th(!) pass play that the Ravens changed their 6-man protection call to account for A-gap pressure.  Specifically, "full slide" protection needed to be used to at least account for the interior gaps and allow Flacco to more easily throw "hot" off of edge defenders.  Full slide protection gives you the luxury of using play-action to lead the running-back to his eventual blocking assignment rather than away from it.

The pass protection, at least prior to the injuries, was a problem early in the game but they certainly can't shoulder all the blame.  Receivers dropped open routes in the first two quarters and the run game suffered from interior penetration as well.  Sprinkle in receivers slipping, tipped passes, and specific coverage beaters that Flacco simply missed, and you get a disappointing loss to a (slightly) inferior team.

Why Defenses Need to "Contain" to have Success

Containment is a concept forced onto football players from the very beginning. How else would 8-year-olds stop those sweeps that are so common at the Peewee level?

Yet, that very concept confounds players at every level. From the high school game I covered for my day job last week, in which a physically dominant team continued to give up big outside runs and thus allowed the lesser opponent to stay in the game, to the Baltimore Ravens big win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, containment is a crucial concept that too often goes ignored.

The Steelers ran several end-arounds in the game last week, some of which were well defended and others less so. Let's take a look at these plays to get an idea about the critical concept of containment.